Number of people aged 65 and over projected to rise by 44.7% by 2049
Northern Ireland is approaching a major demographic turning point, with older people expected to outnumber children within the next year, according to a new report published today by the Commissioner for Older People for Northern Ireland.
The report entitled 'Ready or not: The ageing population' highlights that the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to exceed the number of children aged 0-15 by mid-2027, marking a historic demographic milestone for Northern Ireland. It also projects that the number of people aged 65 and over will increase by 44.7%, rising from 349,200 in 2024 to 505,200 by 2049.
The population aged 85 and over is expected to more than double over the same period.
Launching the report, Siobhan Casey, Commissioner for Older People for Northern Ireland, said:
"Northern Ireland's population is changing rapidly and permanently. Within the next year, older people are expected to outnumber children for the first time in our history.
"This should be a wake-up call for government.
"An ageing population is not simply a health and social care issue. It will affect almost every aspect of life in Northern Ireland, including housing, transport, employment, poverty, public finances and the sustainability of public services.
"Longer lives are one of society's greatest achievements and should be celebrated. However, the reality is that Northern Ireland has yet to develop the coordinated and long-term approach needed to prepare for the scale of demographic change that lies ahead.
"The question is no longer whether our population is ageing. The question is whether we are ready for it.
"Population ageing needs to be recognised as a strategic, cross-government issue and built into long-term planning and decision-making. This means understanding how demographic change will affect public services, housing, transport, employment and communities and planning for those changes now.
The report identifies a number of significant challenges already emerging across society, including growing pressures on health and social care services, increasing housing demand, rising levels of poverty among older people and the growing risks of social isolation and digital exclusion.
Key findings include:
- The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 44.7% by 2049.
- The population aged 85 and over is projected to increase by 126.1%.
- By mid-2027, the number of people aged 65 and over is expected to exceed the number of children aged 0-15.
- Northern Ireland is projected to experience the largest increase in dementia prevalence of any UK region.
- Demand for social housing has reached record levels, with more than 50,000 households on waiting lists.
- Food bank use among people aged 65 and over has increased by 91% since 2019/20.
Health and social care will face increasing demand as more people live into older age, often with complex or multiple long-term health conditions.
The pressure on health and social care is already evident. Between 2009 and 2023, the number of patients waiting for a first consultant-led outpatient appointment increased by 453%.
At the same time, the number residential and nursing beds for every 100 people aged 65 and over has reduced by 23% in the past 15 years.
Northern Ireland is also projected to experience the largest increase in the number of people living with dementia of any UK region.
Housing will also become increasingly important as people live longer and household sizes become smaller, the demand for suitable, accessible and age-friendly homes will continue to grow. In early 2026, 50,381 households were on the social housing waiting list - a record high.
As our population ages, transport planning needs to take account of changing patterns of mobility, particularly for older people living in rural communities.
The changing age profile will also have consequences for the workforce and wider economy, as the proportion of people of working age grows smaller, Northern Ireland needs to consider how it supports older people who want to continue working for longer and make full use of the skills, knowledge and experience of older workers.
The Commissioner says population ageing needs to be embedded at the heart of government planning rather than addressed separately by individual departments as pressures emerge. Decisions about services, infrastructure and investment must reflect changing levels of need.
The Commissioner concluded: "This isn't about prioritising one generation over another but ensuring that our public services follow need and are designed around the people they serve. Failure to plan effectively will place increasing pressure on public services and future generations. Older people and Northern Ireland's ageing demographic must therefore be explicitly included in the next Programme for Government, with clear commitments to plan for the services, infrastructure and support our changing population will need."
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